Japanese Bond Markets

[Arnold Grove]

Some quite reliable and knowledgeable sources predicting that the Japanese economy is at the point of going very pear-shaped with serious knock-on effects for the global economy. Worse than 2008.

The advice is to keep an eye on Japanese bond yields over the coming weeks.

Not sure what to make of it all as it involves something called ‘carrier trade’ which I don’t fully understand (or even partly understand). Much in the way few of us understood ‘sub-prime mortgages’ back in 2007 yet we had all got a sharp lesson in the subject a year later.

Anyone know more about this stuff to either support or debunk the predictions ?

Apparent Japan has an ageing population with a sovereign debt which is a whopping 240% of their GDP and it is thought the next ‘black swan’ fiscal global event is going to come from the land of the rising sun.

As a comparison the UK’s is about 100% (and rising) whilst France’s debt is about 115%. If bond yields spike upwards then we are looking at severe austerity in order to balance a budget in the face of higher govt debt interest payments.

I recall a senior economist in the news last week warning that western economies are about to tip into an unprecedented debt crisis which is going to hurt everyone.

 

[MDR14]

Ah you can't beat a good feel good story on a cold and wet Sunday. Gives you something to feel positive about doesen't it....



Best pop on the tinfoil hat, load up the car and enjoy life at the range while we can afford too!

 

[Arnold Grove]

Ah you can't beat a good feel good story on a cold and wet Sunday. Gives you something to feel positive about doesen't it....



Best pop on the tinfoil hat, load up the car and enjoy life at the range while we can afford too!

Never know, their might be be some air-rifle bargains to be had if there is a global financial meltdown.

Or maybe we will see prices increase because of increased demand as we will all be foraging and hunting for our food this time next year !

Better look up some more rabbit and pigeon recipes.

 

[Dudd I]

From my understanding, Japan has yet to fully recover from their 1990s economic crash.
Things are changing all over the place.
Depending on who/what you're reading, China is about to collapse, but on the other hand, it's a booming economy with a population that continues to get rich.

 

[SlugFest]

Japanese Bond

 

[MDR14]

 

[colinb]

It's not just the debt but also your inflation and the interest rate plus expected growth in GDP versus future expenses of the government .
With an aging population demographic we actually need immigrants who will work as opposed to benefits layabouts who won't or can't because their benefits are greater than anything they can earn.

 

[Arnold Grove]

It's not just the debt but also your inflation and the interest rate plus expected growth in GDP versus future expenses of the government .
With an aging population demographic we actually need immigrants who will work as opposed to benefits layabouts who won't or can't because their benefits are greater than anything they can earn.

That’s for another much more contentious discussion

It is the fallout from any Japanese bond market bust which is drawing the more immediate concern.

 

[Matt@Nearfield]

Japan has the new Lady Prime Minister who's in a bit of a tentative place atm, and inflation is a serious problem.

Can't help but think its starting to sound familiar, but what do I know

 

[Wizzygoth]

The question itching to be asked is......
If most of theses countries are in debts ( bloody large debts)...who are they indebted to? Where is this money mountain?
Are we talking about fictitious non-existent money...the sort the knights templars used?

Or are we taking cyclical and cynical bamboozle....e.g., I borrow 5K from you, you borrow 5K from your friend, and your friend borrows 5K from me ....so we are all in debt...but not really.
Insert a banker in the middle for these transaction, making a % on each......and you know the rest!

Do you know the USA owe billions upon billions to Japan in debts...If Japan call these debts, the US will be bankrupt overnight

 

[colinb]

That’s for another much more contentious discussion

It is the fallout from any Japanese bond market bust which is drawing the more immediate concern.

No, debt is regarded by politicians as the problem of succeeding governments. It can increase steadily as GDP goes up.
Those who purchase the bonds look at all the factors I suggest before setting the rates.
And previously Japan was a good bet with low inflation and an appreciating currency.
The opposite of GB limited.
So the Japanese issue is to identify which factors have worsened and can they be fixed.

 

[Dudd I]

Attempts to answer the question

 

[Wizzygoth]

Attempts to answer the question

That sounds like it was created by a banker!
It is true that speed of money movement is the prime mover for economy, but it is nor true that artificially created debts are necessary.
The created hole or debts are made to serve only one sector...the banking system.

 

[bi6als]

Over the past year Gold has risen from 2000 to 3200 per ounce. 15 years ago it was 600.......thats a 533% increase........If I had invested in it then. I would be a multi-millionaire now......c'est la vie

 

[Arnold Grove]

Over the past year Gold has risen from 2000 to 3200 per ounce. 15 years ago it was 600.......thats a 533% increase........If I had invested in it then. I would be a multi-millionaire now......c'est la vie

That hadn’t gone unnoticed here at chez Arnold Grove.

Gold Sovereigns are exempt from VAT and CGT, and if you take physical possession of them then you can also hand them over to avoid IHT.

Is there any reason to think gold isn’t going to continue its rise given the frailty of the world economies ?

 

[Ratman72]

Hello, Look how China is reacting to Japan ??

 

[bi6als]

That hadn’t gone unnoticed here at chez Arnold Grove.

Gold Sovereigns are exempt from VAT and CGT, and if you take physical possession of them then you can also hand them over to avoid IHT.

Is there any reason to think gold isn’t going to continue its rise given the frailty of the world economies ?

I dont know but it seems that as all else fails gold never does. Ive bought some soveriegns recently and theyve gone up already. You have to pay 0.65% of their value to have them securely stored (BrinksMat) or keep them under the bed. You get basically a bank account that you can access whenever you want. My IFA has done it for me.